Predict the future with PRISM
A new multi-market regulatory platform for collective intelligence


Save the Date: 7th June, 2022

 

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Hypermind -

predictive market

Hypermind is a collective forecasting platform created by Emile Servan Schreiber.

Collective Intelligence

It is now scientifically established that human brains, when assembled, can produce superior intelligence.
 

The IQ of a group emerges not from the IQs of its members, but from their emotional intelligence. It is the quality of the connections that makes the intelligence of the network.

Emile Servan Schreiber

A doctor in cognitive psychology (Carnegie Mellon), Émile Servan-Schreiber has been a journalist and an artificial intelligence engineer. For the past twenty years, as head of Lumenogic and Hypermind, he has divided his time between research on collective intelligence and its practical applications for companies and governments.

Supercollective

The diversity theorem tells us that the intelligence of a group is as much a result of the diversity of opinions as of the expertise of each individual. There is no point in being in a group if everyone thinks alike. It is essential to bring together people who see a problem in different ways, even if some are less expert than others. When you are a manager, you must therefore have the humility to seek the opinions of as many people as possible before making decisions. Digital tools make this possible on a very large scale. This is what I call the 'supercollective'. Emile Servan Schreiber

The Book Supercollective - The new power of our intelligence

Groups have their own intelligence; we have recently learned to measure their IQ. But why are the more feminine groups wiser? How can we invoke the wisdom of a crowd while avoiding the pitfalls of conformity? Why does diversity make us smarter? How does our 'supercollective' intelligence make our companies more successful? How can we use it to revitalise our democracy? And why are American spies so interested in it?
 
Emile Servan-Schreiber provides surprising and stimulating answers to all these questions, based on the latest scientific discoveries and long experience in the field.

What is a

prediction market?

"It is an online betting platform designed to generate reliable forecasts, rather than to enrich a bookmaker. Each fore+F8 it's wrong, his stock is worth nothing." Emile Servan Schreiber

What is a

probabilistic forecast?

Probabilistic forecasting takes a different perspective on anticipating future outcomes. Instead of producing a value as the "best" outcome, probabilistic forecasting involves assigning a "probability" to each possible outcome. In other words, all future events remain possible, they just do not have the same probability.

Being a

better forecaster

A good bettor is someone who is not afraid to change his or her mind, happy to seek out differing points of view, comfortable with the fact that new evidence might lead him or her to abandon what he or she thought. In other words, they are a person with an "actively open mind".

What is the difference between a prediction and a survey?

When we express a preference, as in a vote or a poll, we only use our emotions and our memory. But when we bet on what will happen (as in a prediction market), we use reason, and the results are more powerful.

You don't have to be

an expert in the field

to answer

Various studies have shown that the predictions of generalists far exceed those of experts. Experts who have confined themselves to their specialised field and ignored interdisciplinary knowledge have the worst results. They also tend to be more confident in their - erroneous - predictions than generalists. And their predictions are more definite - which according to probability theory is a bad thing.

The challenge -

Betting system

The most fundamental explanation for the success of the superpredictors is that they have focused on a single objective: predicting the future! What matters is to give the right answer without leaving room for opinions, radical, original or offbeat ideas. Like in a game with rewards.

Open ended

questions

Open-ended questions are ideal for soliciting everyone's creativity. They allow ideas to be generated and selected. 

Close ended

questions

Closed-ended questions allow you to predict by choosing an answer from among different options. 

Why fill in the prediction of others? - Bayesian truth serum

The Bayesian truth serum is a scoring system invented at MIT (Prelec, 2004) to elicit truthful and informed responses from respondents. The method requires respondents to provide not only their own answers, but also to estimate the answers of others.
 

Take the example of the question what is the capital of Pennsylvania. Some people will answer Harrisburg while others will answer Philadelphia. This person will have more weight.

Diversity of opinion

We must trust the intelligence of each person on their own ground. Diversity is the engine of collective intelligence.  It is essential to bring together people who see a problem in different ways, even if some are less expert than others.

This is why PRISM is an open platform. We believe it is important to have everyone's opinion, from a toxicology student to a regulatory expert.

Predicting the future with reliable data

Studies conducted over the past 20 years show that prediction markets are more reliable than traditional methods (surveys, experts, data) in 75% of cases, with up to 30% more accuracy.

Finding

alternative solutions

Through collective intelligence, PRISM explores alternative ways of overcoming or circumventing an obstacle by generating innovative ideas or alternative solutions. 

Becoming

an opinion leader

PRISM helps to organise and optimise the Collective Intelligence of our regulatory business community, for better decision making and more innovation to responsibly engage with the challenges facing our planet.

CIA

prediction

After each US election, the CIA publishes a report making predictions about the world situation for the next twenty years.

Le Point and Hypermind create the Supercollective Institute

Who will be elected president of the French republic in 2022?